Dr. Fuller on Real Estate Market
April 26th, 2008
Pay close attention to the charts. We have double the foreclosure rates of surrounding jurisdictions and the homes are being sold so cheaply that it is bringing the value down for everyone’s home. It seems as if some are so desperate to put a ‘positive’ spin on what’s happening by calling us a ‘Jewel of Recovery’ which is particularly odd phrase.
Dr. Fuller will be extremely useful over the next couple years as we attempt to map the recovery process. I would agree 100% with him about the shift from owners to rentals; this is going to further exacerbate problems in these older neighborhoods which is another reason why the County should invest in additional zoning enforcement officers.
Categories: 9500Liberty, Aftermath, Dr. Fuller
Just one note… the filmmakers spelled county with an extra u. I know it’s a typo (like a key sticking), but I thought they might want to know.
To be more precise, as of Feb. 15th, 2008 we had double the foreclosures of the next worst county (Loudoun) in the DC metro area, and nearly triple the foreclosures of the third worst (Staffard).
There are recent developments as well. Greg Letiecq pointed out at Citizens’ Time Tuesday that there was a spike in home sales in PWC last month. I wrote to Dr. Fuller to verify this. Here is Dr. Fuller’s reply:
To read the chart above without having to hit “pause,” go to:
http://www.cra-gmu.org/forecasts.htm
It’s called “Washington Area Economic Outlook
MCA of Metro Washington — April 7, 2008″
PWC’s foreclosure rate is literally off the chart. They put a couple of arrows to show where our numbers would be if the page were twice as wide.
The other chart in the video came from a different study:
http://borderbattles.ssrc.org/Rumbault_Ewing/
Times are bad everywhere, but racism is never good for the economy.
Mr Lettiques house has declined 100k in value. at least 40k of that has been attributed to the fearful climate in PWC
The next county election would be a god time to send all these politicians packing
Just like Greg Letiecq, your economist seems to be fishing the data with less than the requisite objectivity. The entire nation is experiencing a loss in housing values, not just Prince William County.
With the rapid growth in Prince William County, it should be no surprise that housing values in this area would also be the least stable. New homes are most often populated by new employees. Such people are most likely to move and also most likely to be unable to afford the house they just bought. So when housing values drop, areas with a lot of new homes suffer the greatest price drop.
I have seen such a collapse in housing values before. When I was in Houston, TX, in the 80’s, the price of oil dropped. I had just bought a house that was 2 1/2 years old. Oops! Since I was in the military, I had no choice except to move — and to keep the house until I could afford to sell it. Five long years.
When I retired and moved to this area, I bought an older home.
The overall positive economic impact of illegal aliens does not amount to much. These people work low wage jobs. So the only people they really help are the people who employ lots of them.
I will concede that illegal aliens are less likely to use public services, but almost none of them can afford to pay the taxes required for such services. In particular, that includes those with children in our public school system. So long as large numbers of illegal aliens are coming into our community, we will have children taught in trailers.
Citizen Tom,
You should have seen the trailers when all those damn military and government people moved into the area back in the 70’s. PWC Schools even had to have year round school. The eastern end of the county was especially hard-hit.
Are you an economist? Perhaps you can point out the error of Dr. Fuller’s assessment.
Perhaps we have come full circle.
Citizen Tom said:
Yes but this is the nature of social services. It means everyone in the community gets equal treatment when it comes to the service provided. Don’t blame illegals for an effect that is inherently ingrained in a system that provides social services. Illegals can’t even vote for or against social services. Stop scapegoating them. If we abolished all the social services tomorrow, they would accept it and make the best of the situation.
But Citizen Tom, what accounts for the PWC’s foreclosure rate being double that of our immediate “sister” counties?
My, oh, my! Look who appeared TOGETHER today on an “illegal immigration” panel at the “Virginia Conservative Leadership Conference.”
Hint: it’s not Eric and Anabel.
http://www.virginiaconservative.org/agenda.html
Check the 9:20 AM session.
Wonder if they carpooled.
Dumb and Dumber? Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dumb? FAIR???? What’a that? I don’t know nothing about no fair.
Moon-howler — I pointed out the error of good doctor’s assessment. Why don’t you read my previous comment again?
As for the 70’s, the problem there is the way schools are financed. During periods of rapid growth, you may notice that the privately financed parts of our infrastructure have less trouble keeping up. Whereas investors view growth with pleasure, government tends to regard growth as a burden. Nevertheless, military and government people do pay enough taxes to build permanent infrastructure. So eventually, when rate of growth eases off, school infrastructure catches up. Illegal immigrants, on the other hand,… Minimum wage jobs are what they are.
Mackie – I agree that it is the nature of our social services system to attract illegal immigrants looking for handouts. I concur that it is a bad system, but I do not blame the illegal immigrants. Instead of giving them handouts, I just think we ought to send illegal immigrants back to their home country. I also like your idea about abolishing all social services. Why don’t you write your congressman?
Elena — I explained the high foreclosure rate, and you are smart enough to understand the explanation. But I will add few more details. Prince William experienced a particularly high rate of growth concentrated in the west end of the county. Due to easy credit, prices soared. Then the credit debacle hit, and we have a credit crunch. As a result, price collapsed.
Look around. We now have thousands of new homes, built since 2000, sitting right next to each other. Would you like to guess how many of the owners have unconventional loans? Would you like to guess how many of the owners have mortgages larger than the value of their house?
When I was in Houston in the 80’s, some people could have paid their mortgages, but they did not. When the housing market collapsed, they saw their mortgage was larger than the value of their house. Then they looked at their bank account.
Some of the owners then walked away from their house with the big mortgage. They paid cash for another house. Our foreclosure laws are that lenient.
Do I think the illegal immigrant have anything to with the drop in home values? Not likely. The houses that dropped the most in value tend to be the most expensive houses. How many illegal immigrants can afford a half million dollar home? Perhaps if they band together, but do you really want a house in your neighborhood with 15 – 30 people in it? That will do wonders for the value of the other homes in the neighborhood, right?
Citizen Tom,
I am no economist and math was my least favorite subject, so you’ll have to bear with me here
I know that Loudon also experienced a rapid growth, especially with the initial repeal of their Rural Area for high density housing, and yet they do not appear to be remotely close to our forclosure crisis. I know that we had a high influx of hispanics into our county, but unless we assume they all had fuzzy lones, and most were not documented, I don’t see where you explain PWC’s dire circumstances in relation to our “sister” counties forclosure rates. I do believe that the resolution and the climate in this county have had serious negative consequences.
We knew a blended family that has since left the City, the home was valued at 575,000 when the bought it back in July 2006. According to the City’s website it’s now valued at 392,000. So, yes, undocumented families own these homes. I know they purchased and moved up every 2 years, I can recall 3 homes that they lived in before the last one. They started in a townhouse, then a larger townhouse, then a single family, then this last home.
It was a combination of a slowing in the construction industry plus increased of his paperwork and the resolution that caused them to leave the area. He had worked at the same company for 7 years as a backhoe operator and the employer said he wanted to keep him on. The employer even went so far as to suggest the guy should just go to the immigration office and get the problem fixed; as if that was an option.
They did end up abandoning the home, although I can’t remember when.
Anon, thanks for the typo catch. Embarrassing but not enough to redo… But it’s good you posted because I often copy title art from one movie to another. It could have been an on-going thing! (=
Elena – There is an old joke about putting ten economists in a room and getting ten different opinions. Our economic system is too complex to model accurately. Eventually, when a problem becomes sufficiently complex, people tend to believe what they want to believe.
Consider that we are talking about real estate. There are three words for making money in real estate: location, location, and location. But what makes one location better than another? Why would prices in Prince William drop more than in Loudoun? Are these two counties identical? Except for Prince William’s crackdown on illegal immigrants, is that what you are assuming. Yet there could numerous reasons that explain the difference that have nothing to do with illegal immigrants.
What is most likely true is that what you have observed is a coincidence. Consider what you are saying. You are asserting that the presence of large numbers of illegal immigrants improves the value of residential real estate. That is simply preposterous.
Amin,
“They did end up abandoning the home, although I can’t remember when.”
There are legal people that have or are thinking of abandoning for being upside down in equity or mad at the tax increase when properties are deprecating. There are numerous reasons and situations to blame for the foreclosures and economic down turn.
If people are walking away, THEY need to own the blame. It is not being responsible and hurting them AND people left behind.
Moon-howler at 8:42 said “those damn military and government people”. Gee, if I said “those damn illegal-aliens” I’d be chastised to no end. So you embrace illegals yet have contempt for people who defend your liberties? How totally un-American. As a vet I say kiss my ………. well you know!
There’s more going on here than the dueling simplistic theories suggest. One thing is that the automobile suburbs are not a tenable way to live after peak oil. If you think gas prices are high now think again.
Oh good grief Alamo, I was being sarcastic. Sorry, that one isn’t going to play out. If you knew anything about the history of the county you are trying to control you would have understood the nuances of what I was saying.
Where do you get off saying I embrace illegal aliens? You don’t know what I embrace or don’t embrace. I do believe you are stereotyping.
Tom and SA, I was making the point that all sorts of conditions bring an influx of people into an area. And yes Tom, the government and military did bring in their fair share of taxes and plus…ding ding ding….they brought in federal impact aid. Sweet! ker ching ker ching!
As a daughter of a vet, SA, no thank you.
Citizen Tom- Let me straighten out the issue of Social Services. There are no persons here who are undocumented (you say illegal) who receive Social Services. I worked in the system for 28 years and I know that to be a fact. No one qualifies for Social Services unless one is a resident alien, and many of them do not qualify because of a 5 year rule, or a citizen of the US . You might want to look at the statistics that show undocumented do pay far more into the tax system than they use. There are a variety of ways they pay. They pay real estate through rent or homeownership, sales tax, personal property tax and many pay their federal and state tax as well as Social Security.
Reality: The National Research Council concluded that immigrants pay on average $80,000 per capita more in taxes than they will use in government services during their lifetimes. The Social Security Administration, for example, estimates that workers without valid social security numbers contribute $7 billion in Social Security tax revenues and roughly $1.5 billion in Medicare taxes annually, yet elderly immigrants rarely qualify for Medicare or long-term care services provided through Medicaid.
Well Marie, it looks like you have debunked one more myth that people love to spout about regarding social services and illegal immigration.
Someone started the social services rumor (illegals are using up all our social services) and it just perpetuates, like the best of urban legends.
That is not to say that illegal immigration does not have some problems, this just isn’t one of them.
First I want you all to be proud I used the blockquote correct.
Now on to you Tom….
1. Just because you are on public assistance doesn’t mean you don’t pay taxes. It means you fall below a certain income. These folks just aren’t making enough money to survive in our high cost-of-living area. Furthermore, it’s lack of oversight in social services/assistance that causes abuse. And why is there lack of oversight? Because the programs are underfunded and the employees get laid off! How can you have oversight when there’s no one to do it?
2. We had trailers LONG before we had this “issue” of “illegals”. Furthermore, since we don’t know how many “illegals” have children in school, it’s illogical to blame them for trailers. According to Wally Covington, people are having larger famillies in general, and this account for crowding in schools. We see it ALL the time in my district. And we can also see the county’s lack of planning and the developers’ lack of funding our schools. Developers built a gazillion homes but built schools that would only house less than 1000 students. Duh. I’m no math genius but that doesn’t add up.
Marie, I agree with your analysis of qualification for Social Services usage and having to demonstrate citizenship for services.
However, there are certain areas such as the free public health clinics that ARE used to a large degree by people who have illegal or undocumented (which ever makes you happy) status and these are funded by both State and County monies. In addition, in the current County budget, there is an amount of monies paid to the hospitals located here as part of a clinic to offer medical services to the public that are used by the same group(s). In fact, in the Potomac News a few weeks ago, in an effort to demonstrate the effect of the resolution on people leaving the County, representatives of both of these clinics acknowledged that they had witnessed a decline in the amount of services and while they do not inquire as to legal status, they acknowledged at least part of their respective clientele was illegal or undocumented.
So to say that some highly expensive services are not used by illegal or undocumented residents on a regular basis is incorrect.
Also, while the illegal or undocumented do pay sales taxes, gas taxes – as we all do, that hardly compares to the additional real estate taxes that funds our schools that overcrowded houses do not pay on the same scale as everyone else. I have a house down the street from my house that has two families living in it. Each family has one child in our public schools. That house is getting twice the bang for the money that I am getting. If each family had their own house, the County would get double the money. I don’t know if they are illegal or not, that’s not my business. But wherever and whenever this overcrowding takes place, it cost the County and all of us money to make up what the County loses.
Lucky–
1. Most of these clinics provide basic services like immunizations. These aren’t expensive. And they save us money because they control disease that everyone is supposedly so concerned about in the “illegal” communities.
2. You can’t attribute the decline to “illegals” because first, the foreclosure rate has driven all sort of people out of PWC and second, you don’t know who the “illegals” are and neither do the hospitals because according to their PR person who emailed me, they don’t ask and don’t collect stats citizenship. Who is saying these people are “illegal”? It’s a perception, not a statistical fact.
3. If these folks has a work pass or a way of working for an agency, they could get health insurance which would take care of the problem on a national level.
Damn! I didn’t do the block quote correctly. GRRRRRRR!
Kgotthardt, I am not attributing any part of the decline to illegals, I was merely pointing out to Marie that there ARE some areas in the social service arena that do cost the rest of us money.
Your call for a work pass is beyond the County’s means of providing.
Kgotthardt, you must not be reading my posts closely. I never said they were illegal, I am not trying to define family. What I am saying is that wherever this type of overcrowding takes place, it cost the County income.
Citizen Tom,
I NEVER said people who were walking away were all illegal. I said that the reslution had created a climate that influenced the double, yes double forclosure rate in our county. I guess I am not a big believer in coincidence. We don’t have the scientific data to prove why WE are double, but what is the one variable that stands out in our county? The resolution, and we know that people who were perfectly legal did leave. I still do not see where you explain why WE are double or possibly even number one in the state in forclosure rates. I understand that we grew incredibly fast, but faster than Loudon? I don’t think so.
Lucky Duck You may also want to know that a large percent of the funds for Public Health services are Federal dollars, not just State and Local tax dollars. Hospitals also receive a large amount of Federal dollars. As soon as I can locate the cost to provide those health services to undocumented vs citizens of the US I will post them. I can assure you that undocumented do not receive what you may think or what the BVBL people espouse.
I am not saying there are any easy answers or that there are not problems associated with undocumented immigrants. I believe everyone has the right to be treated with respect and dignity and I have not seen that prevail in this County nor the Cities. It is deplorable that human beings would be dehumanized and that some would have them laying in the gutter bleeding rather than provide adequate health services. That is a bunch of crap!!!
Hey Lucky Duck do you have the same problem with one family living in a house that has 6 children? Don’t peddle that nonsense. Not only did Manassas get their “butts” spanked for their definition of family and their alleged unfair housing practices they are facing a huge lawsuit which is going to cost Manassas taxpayers a bundle.
Moon-howler,
Oops, sorry about that! I love sarcasm also, but didn’t realize that was what you were trying to convey. I owe you one, my apologies.
Elena,
There are numerous factors even before the DRAFT of the Resolution.
This area already made this list back in June of ‘07
http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/19/real_estate/500_top_foreclosure_zip_codes/
Also see this link of the doubled foreclosures
http://www.bvbl.net/index.php/2007/05/30/foreclosures-almost-double/
And finally this ad I ran across this morning.
New mortgage crisis looms
Steep price declines and interest-rate resets will have even prime borrowers simply walking away from their mortgage obligations.
By Mark Gimein, Slate
http://realestate.msn.com/Buying/Article_slate.aspx?cp-documentid=6914731>1=35000
Marie, I am not peddling “nonsense”. Read closely, I am not defining family. I am just pointing out a fact that if two unrelated residents share a house and they each send children to local schools, they are not paying a fair share of the cost of educating those children. Unless the structure was designed as such (like an apartment building) then the County is not getting the return for which it issues building permits. How can you dispute that?
If people are buying up the foreclosure properties for use as rentals, then they had better continue supporting the Resolution. A friend of ours went to Woodbridge yesterday to look at a townhouse that was being foreclosed, and found a place that required several months of work to make livable by ‘normal’ standards. The rugs were all stained from spills left to dry, and practically every wall was marked up with children’s scribbles plus a general lack of upkeep if you know what I mean. Oh, and the family was present at the time, a Hispanic family with 4 children. So if you have rental property, you don’t want them moving back in any time soon. (before everyone attacks with charges of assumption lets just say this is based on first hand observations and leave it at that. You can draw your own conclusions)
To Marie,
You speak of ‘dehumanizing’ people, but if someone chooses to live like an animal by our standards, then who is doing the ‘dehumanizing’ to them? We’re just calling them as we see them! Sorry, if my standards are higher than that of a third world slum, but that is just how I was raised as a US citizen!
Citizen Tom said, “With the rapid growth in Prince William County, it should be no surprise that housing values in this area would also be the least stable.”
Nice try, but according to the last census, growth in Loudoun County exceeded Prince William. So why is Prince William and not Loudoun the least stable?
Dr. Fuller is saying that Prince William has more than its fair share of foreclosures and that the price of homes in Prince William is falling at a greater rate than the surrounding jurisdictions. If this pattern continues, the price of homes is Prince William will have to rise at a greater rate than in surrounding jurisdictions in order to regain lost ground.
Will the current climate of aggressive intolerance toward people who are not white, ultra-conservative Republicans help or hurt Prince William when the economy begins to recover?
I think it can only hurt. When a jurisdiction proudly advertises intolerance, the only people who feel welcome are those that agree with the narrow-minded rhetoric promoted by officials.
Many people will not feel welcome and exclude Prince William when they seek to purchase a new home because they will not feel welcome. Prince William will have limited its ability to compete with surrounding jurisdictions, and this alone could keep housing prices lower than those in the surrounding area. It will also limit Prince William’s capacity to attract new businesses that pay a living wage, although it may increase low-end retail and “dirty” business.
Regarding schools, Citizen Tom said, “So long as large numbers of illegal aliens are coming into our community, we will have children taught in trailers.”
This is a surprising statement from someone who covers School Board meetings. I see different reasons for this. So long as the School Board continues to use taxpayer dollars to build fancy new administration buildings, increase administrative salaries instead of building new schools, and fail to explain the growing amount of budget overruns to the public, we will have children taught in trailers.
And large numbers of classrooms in trailers are another negative that will turn people away from relocating to Prince William County.
SA-
Sounds like a coat of paint and either cleaning or replacing the carpet; either or both of which are pretty standard when you own a rental property.
admin,
The impression from the person at the house was “utterly disgusting” so it went much deeper than my description may have portrayed. This was not your normal wear and tear from day to day living (unless you live below the border). Some photos were taken, and I hope to get a copy later this week. Having said that, I know that any amount of evidence will be rationalized away, or excused, so why do I even bother?
SA,
Ahh yes, those “dirty ” hispanics with all those children. And children scribbling on the walls, better not come to my house, we’ve scrubbed many a wall and now just have to repaint. Yes, those disgusting people who live “below the border”. Thanks for sharing your perspective SA, I think I get the picture now.
Lucky Duck,
You do bring up an interesting point. I have suggested, numberous times in previous threads, that most immigrants live, when they first come here, in homes with more than one family. This is nothing new, I would venture to say that Fairfax and more urban counties have dealt with this issue for decades longer than we have. I believe the federal govt. should allot more money to schools with higher ESOL enrollment. In fact, at the school I was a counselor in(bailys crossroads), our Principal was AWESOME in getting federal grant money for our school based on our extremely high esol population. We had kids from 36 different countries, it was a really awesome place to work.
RedDawn, your point about people walking away from mortgages reminded me of something else Dr. Fuller said. He said that people who feel uncomfortable with the negativism, people of color especially, will be more likely to abandon their homes if they get into a bad situation such as owing more on the home than it is currently worth. Another unintended consequence that few foresaw.
PWC is becoming less diverse in an era when other areas are becoming more diverse, and diversity is considered to be, not only a positive, but a must for economic growth. Our next video will touch upon why diversity and economic growth go “hand and glove.” Before I post it, can anyone guess why?
The answer made sense to me once I heard it, but I hadn’t thought about it that way before.
Ric,
I am thinking…….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXGhvoekY44
Eric
sorry~
Controversy?
Note 2:07 of this video
Business and Investors AVOID Controversy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oiwJ-_BipU
Eric,
I’m hoping you went to Richmomd yesterday to tape/watch Corey Stewart and Greg L chair that table discussion on “illegal immgration” at the VCPC convention.
http://raisingkaine.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=071A9A1CE395100B8D307AE025325953?diaryId=13963
Either that, or I’m hoping for a transcript.
I’m guessing that many PWC citizens who are active in community issues (on the grassroots level) would love the chance to spend an entire day with BOCS chair. Talk about unfettered access! Corey was steeped in “illegal immigration” hysteria and outrage yesterday, which should leave him completely unwilling to listen to other points of view, much less compromise, on Tuesday. How unfortunate for our county, and our budget.
Elena,
A better description I couldn’t have given myself, but then those are your words!
Eric,
What the hell does diversity have to do with economic growth? That makes no sense at all. Basically you’re saying that any country without diversity is doomed to economic failure. How did the US become an economic power house when the majority of business people were ‘white’ rather than ‘diverse’ as the minorities are always quick to point out? Many countries are extremely less diverse than the US. As a matter of fact, as they endure huge influxes of immigrants they are beginning to suffer the consequences. England and France are two examples of countries with recent problems dealing with immigration.
SA,
I’ll take this one. Go out to West Virginia and see how many “immigrants” you see. There are none. In the rust belt…there are very few. Anywhere you go where there is economic prosperity, you will find immigrants…both legal and illegal. Go to older towns in states with no economic growth…no immigrants…legal or illegal.
“I am just pointing out a fact that if two unrelated residents share a house and they each send children to local schools, they are not paying a fair share of the cost of educating those children.” LOL! Too damn bad! Try building some affordable housing instead of McMansions and over-priced unit housing and maybe we wouldn’t have this problem.
“Go out to West Virginia and see how many “immigrants” you see.” Of course not. WV has been declared the hate capital of the world. And PWC is well on its way.
“What the hell does diversity have to do with economic growth?” All the major cities have diversity. Diversity makes an area globally viable economicaly and socially. If we don’t get used to the idea that AIRPLANES and MEDIA have made this a smaller world, then we are going to be left behind.
So hate to break it to you, folks, but this IS 2008.
“Corey was steeped in “illegal immigration” hysteria and outrage yesterday, which should leave him completely unwilling to listen to other points of view, much less compromise, on Tuesday.” Furthermore, have you EVER seen a politician lobby for his OWN policies WITHIN the community? Sorry, but I’ve never had local government taking a side with voters like this on such a personal level. One wonders what personal stakes CS and JS have in all this. Besides popularity (which they don’t even HAVE any more) it seems they are risking too much now. WHY??? WHAT would make someone do this? Conspiracy theory or not, they are PROTECTING something and it’s not something that’s open to the public. This is TOO obvious. Someone do some more digging please.
Do the Right Thing,
I don’t know where in WVA you were. I suggest you visit Moorefield or Petersburg, WVA. There are immigrants there. They have numerous poultry plants. They definately attract immigrants. I don’t know if they are illegal or not. Take a looking at Harrisonburg(Rockingham Co).
Of course you find immigrants where there is prosperity. That is where they will find jobs and social support. It has nothing to do with them creating the economy to begin with! That’s why they came to Virginia. duh!
SA,
Do you not agree ALL human beings need a place to live? Of course people live where they can afford to. I hope you don’t fall to hard off of that HIGH horse you are sitting on.
“It has nothing to do with them creating the economy” Technically, you are correct that undocumented citizens can’t create the economy. They are pawns of people who don’t give them the right to be acknowledged or protected or treated fairly but keep them employed without a means of getting “papers”. Perhaps, SA, you should thank big business and the “real Americans” that reap the benefits of what has become slave labor.
Kgotthardt, I am not trying to ferment a disagreement with you, but you keep coming back to me with holier than thou solutions.
To address your worldly solutions:
1. The County is NOT going to be able to issue work permits for immigrants as you suggested.
2. The developers are not going to build affordable housing because they make less profit from them. Our board should have been enforcing this all along, but everyone says “not in my backyard”.
So your “to damm bad” about the County losing money on multiple non related families in one house only adds to your pie in the sky answers. Give me some REAL suggestions that we can debate, but thus far, you have presented unworkable solutions on the local level.
Hi Elena, I agree with you that all waves of immigrants probably shared housing at some point to cover expenses. The Irish did, the Italians did and when I was growing up, the Vietnamese did also. What is different for today’s wave is that we as a public notice more and are more inclined to either comment or object. Society, particulary in this area, has different expectations of immigrants than in earlier, less media savy times. I am second generation who lived in a similar ethnic community growing up so some actions considered objectionable were accepted. Our society today is less tolerant.
SA, you are one of the few reasons I keep coming back to this site! What a breath of fresh air your posts are, and you are driving them crazy here with your forthright common sense.
Alamo,
Diversity also refers to socio-economic conditions also. The boss doesn’t want to take out his own garbage. All societies, especially the more advanced, wealthier ones, have this type of diversity.
Alamo,
Earlier apology accepted. I should have put my sarcasm alert on. Too earlier or too late. I dont remember.
Luckyduck,
I see your point and it is one I had not thought about. Back in the day, immigrants were far removed from the middle and upper classes. Immigrants lived in enclaves and the only time paths crossed were when the immigrant went to work.
Rapid communication and transportation bring the immigrant closer. When immigrants move into an area like ours, they take up the inexpensive housing. When that runs out, the more creative ones pile into the more middle class communities, several families at a time.
And that is the rub. We bought one on one and they bought two (or 3) on one to make ends meet. That 2 for one does short change the municipality. Of course, having a bunch of kids does too. Just an observation.
How does 2 families of 2 kids each strike any harder than 1 family having 4 kids? I know 2 half carat rubies or diamonds aren’t going to cost as much as 1 full carat ruby or diamond.
MH,
Excellent points at 4:12.
The Ruby is a diamond in the rough.
Hi Moon-Howler, I see your point about having more kids in a one family house. Perhaps I am looking at it as a matter of fairness or equity in the system.
I take it you are a female, diamonds never crossed my mind.
Kgotthardt, I am not trying to ferment a disagreement with you GO AHEAD AND DISAGREE AWAY! THAT’S WHY WE HAVE THIS FORUM, ISN’T IT? TO FIND SOLUTION? , but you keep coming back to me with holier than thou solutions. AIN’T NOTHING HOLY ABOUT ME, DEAR.
To address your worldly solutions:
1. The County is NOT going to be able to issue work permits for immigrants as you suggested. NO BUT THE COUNTY CAN STOP PLAYING FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AND WASTING OUR MONEY AND GO LOBBY THE REAL FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO MAKE THIS HAPPEN! CS WENT TO TESTIFY TO CONGRESS, AND BASICALLY, HE DID NOTHING. AND HIS RESOLUTION ISN’T DOING ANYTHING EITHER. LET’S DO WHAT WE CAN IN THE RIGHT PLACES, AND IN THE MEANTIME, FOCUS ON CRIMINALS IN THE PRISON AND CLEANING UP NEIGHBORHOODS, NOT THIS RIDICULOUS POLICY.
2. The developers are not going to build affordable housing because they make less profit from them. Our board should have been enforcing this all along, but everyone says “not in my backyard”. THEN, SORRY….THEY ARE STUCK WITH THEIR MISTAKES. MANY PEOPLE SHARE HOUSES, NOT JUST IMMIGRANTS. FOR A TIME, MY FAMILY LIVED WITH MY HUSBAND’S UNCLE, A FRIEND AND HIS GIRL FRIEND. WHY? HOUSING IS TOO EXPENSIVE. AND YUP….SIX CARS BETWEEN US.
IT’S NOT TOO LATE FOR THE COUNTY TO SUPPORT AFFORDABLE HOUSING THROUGH RICHMOND AND BETTER ZONING. STOP DEVELOPERS FROM BUILDING MORE MCMANSIONS. TELL THEM IF THE HOUSES WON’T SELL FOR UNDER $280,000 WE DON’T WANT THEM. WORK WITH SOME OF THE AFFORDABLE HOUSING GROUPS OUT THERE TO HELP MAKE SENSE OF IT ALL. GET PEOPLE OFF THE STREETS AND STAYING IN THE COUNTY.
AND WHILE WE ARE TALKING ZONING, DON’T RE-ZONE ANYTHING OUT OF AGRICULTURAL UNTIL THE RECESSION IS OVER! WE HAVE ENOUGH DAMN BUILDINGS AND EMPTY HOUSES. GET THESE DEVELOPERS TO INVEST IN OUR COUNTY—PARKS AND SCHOOLS! THEN MAYBE PEOPLE WILL WANT TO ACTUALLY LIVE HERE AGAIN AFTER THE RESOLUTION IS CANNED.
Kgotthardt, You and I will have to agree to disagree in a civil style. Although I share some, not all, of your concerns, I have been around local government for several decades and frankly, the lobbying by our locals to the State and (God help us) the Feds, will take years and years. Its a dream to think that one County in one State will quickly revamp federal immmigration policy. As for our State, they can’t even address transportation, let alone immigration or Social Services. So using this approach, nothing will happen in the short, medium or long term.
I am by nature a practical person who needs to see a clear goal and a work out a path to said goal. Lobbying and lobbying is a slow death to no end. So we’ll agree to disagree. Friends?
Lucky Duck,
Off to bathtime and bedtime for the kids. I am just catching up now and am thoroughly enjoying reading the posts between you, Ruby, MH, and KG. I hope to add more later!
I don’t have time to respond to every comment. I suggest you read my post on this subject. http://citizentom.wordpress.com/2008/04/27/defending-the-border-from-sophistry/
anonymom – For some reason, you want to equate bigotry with conservative Republicans. Has it occurred to you that that is intolerant? We have laws on the books. We think the laws make sense. We are disappointed that our political leaders in DC refuse to enforce those laws.
We tried, when Reagan was president, amnesty. That did not work. Still, you have the gall to call us intolerant. Frankly, I think you don’t know what you are talking about.
Willoughby, I don’t think you or SecondAlamo are driving anyone crazy here.
I actually like Second Alamo, even though we tend to disagree on some issues. I would be sorry to see him/her leave. He adds some substance to the discussion, unlike you. Your intent is to insult and be a gadfly.
Lucky, it’s always fun discussing things with you! You make me bound and determined to find even more solutions. LOL. I also see that since you’ve been around, you don’t have the kind of “we can do anything” attitude I have (because I am naive or stubborn or idealistic or….)
I understand the state can’t fix the roads. And I understand they can’t do much by themselves. But if enough people get together and demand congress to act, then at least we’ve done SOMETHING! Right now, we’re just sitting here saying, “Nah. NOthing we can do about it so let’s try to fix it at the county level.” It CANNOT BE DONE at the county level without bankrupting us and bringing social chaos.
If our congress people won’t do anything, then we need to vote them out and get people who WILL do something. This is the United States, dammit! How can we let PAPERWORK destroy our unity like this????
BTW, we’re so close to DC and have screwed this whole thing up so badly, we might actually be ABLE to make the feds do something FAST! Nothing like catastrophe to make people wake up and MOVE.
Luckyduck,
Yep, female. I am a great believer in ‘diamonds are a girl’s best friend’ but other stones are nice also. Lapis, turquoise (a particular favorite of mine), opals, amethyst, topaz…oh stop me please.
I do understand your point about artifically created apartments. I also think there is not one thing we can so about it. I live next door to a house that has converted be a rooming house/apartment (no kids). I live behind another house converted to a 2 family home top/bottom fashion (couple of kids).
If these occupants continue to be good neighbors, they won’t hear a peep out of me. If they start being crappy neighbors, I know of their violations and I will not hesitate to use what I know. I think that is fair. I am not going to heckle and needle people just for the fun of it.
In looking back to see what I said to upset Second Alamo, I’ve decided it must be the word “must.” I think what I should have said is diversity is an “advantage.” But I will say that we must look for advantages, and try not to lose them, if we are to compete with other counties in this region and avoid becoming the ugly duckling of the DC Metro economy (as we are currently in the DC Metro housing market).
One of the many new things I learned from Dr. Fuller is that this region has the healthiest economy in the U.S., and as a result, Virginia is consistently ranked the best to state to do business. While the rest of the nation slips into recession, Virginia will not — we will see a slow down, but not a recession, he predicts.
In this region where so many new businesses and new capital investment are flowing in from around the globe, it would be to our advantage as a county to maintain the level of diversity we have, because companies look for diversity as one of the criteria in deciding where to break ground. In fact, the international diversity of the DC area population is one of the reasons why businesses hoping to succeed in the global economy are drawn here.
In addition, we have a job shortage in this area. We are competing with the other counties for workers. And, once again, immigrants and migrants from other parts of this country look for diversity when they decide where to settle in this area. I’m not sure if I included this in the video, but Dr. Fuller pointed out something that has long been obvious to me — that the most creative people, and those who tend to be in the highest income bracket, prefer to live in diverse, stimulating dynamic communities. One example he gave was they like to eat at different kinds of restaurants. But I have noticed that people from rural, once exposed to a diverse college campus or urban environment, are “hooked” on diversity, and are hard pressed to return to the homogeneous areas from whence they came.
If Prince William County is known, fairly or unfairly, as a place that is not tolerant of diverse populations, we will not only lose out on the economic benefit of those immigrants who provide the working-class engine, added tax base, and added jobs (a net benefit, Dr. Fuller argues, contrary to what FAIR or Greg Letiecq might tell you). We also lose out on more skilled, more educated immigrants who are looking for diversity when they decide where in this region to settle. And, we lose out on highly-skilled American workers who come here from other parts of the country.
The short term effect on the housing market is already obvious. But also, this stigma effects our long term prospects for attracting new businesses and investment. Our economy depends on “idea” people. We need the types of people who are drawn to the diversity associated with metro areas, and usually turned off by the kind of intolerance that is currently our reputation. If we are a county with less “idea” people, we have yet another disadvantage when companies decide where to locate themselves.
So, with that said, here is the new video, which turned out to be a contrast in world views between Dr. Fuller, and Michael Hethmon of FAIR, one of the principle authors of the Immigration (Rule of Law) Resolution.
PS: RedDawn, that was hilarious linking me to the Jeopardy music! I’m laughing about it, but then again, now I have that darn song stuck in my head.
Eric, you are being too nice: “If Prince William County is known, fairly or unfairly, as a place that is not tolerant of diverse populations” I think it’s fairly labeled as such. If I were “browner” I wouldn’t move here and I might move out pretty fast. If nothing else, who wants their kids targeted like Mr. Fernandez’s kids were? No way.
I don’t think that wanting illegal immigrants out of this county equals hate, I also don’t think that if you waved a magic wand and all of the illegal immigrants were removed from PWC is would be any less diverse than it was before. I’ve lived here for about 20 years and it was pretty diverse when I got here. Also, some people here say that PWC is causing fear in the community with the resolution that is causing people to leave. I personally don’t think that the resolution is causing fear (with legal residents), I think it’s a combination of things. One thing would have to be the rhetoric that MWB spread leading up to the resolution caused fear. Another would have to be this site. Take a look at some of the titles to the past threads:
– ZEIGEN SIE MIR IHRE PAPIERE, SEIEN SIE IHRE PAPIERE IM AUGTRAG? This was an attempt to compare PWCPD to Nasi storm troopers.
- CHILDREN WHO ARE CITIZENS ARE BEING DENIED HIGHER EDUCATION! – This was simply not true at all, this case had to do with a kid who was denied in-state tuition because he was considered a dependant and as a dependant he parents had to prove they lived on VA which they could not do because they were here illegally. I think the rules for this need to be looked at and possibly changed because this guy does live in VA, however, suggesting legal citizens “are being denied higher education!” is absurd.
- ETHNIC CLEANSING IN PRINCE WILLIAM – Yet another fear tactic used.
I get you KGotthardt. But you would it is a bit unfair that we have this reputation, when only a small segment of the population wanted what has happened here. There are a lot of people who opposed it. They just weren’t as organized. They don’t deserve to suffer the economic impacts. They don’t deserve to be considered to live in the most backward part of NoVA. But the overwhelming majority of people in Prince William didn’t know what was happening last year, and didn’t vote at all. I almost feel worse for those people, whose lives are being be severely affected and yet played no role whatsoever, probably didn’t even vote.
So yes, while there are certain people in the county that earned the bad reputation, I don’t think it’s deserved for all of us.
“I don’t think it’s deserved for all of us.” NO it’s not deserved for all of us! I didn’t mean that. I meant HSM et al have RUINED it for all of us now.
I understand what you mean now. Thanks for clarifying, Eric.
Hello, please see
http://luxuriouschoices.blogspot.com/2008/03/pwc-ethnic-cleansing-racism-and.html
http://luxuriouschoices.blogspot.com/2008/04/wright-is-right.html
and
http://luxuriouschoices.blogspot.com/2008/04/racism-in-prince-william-area.html
This is the same Dr. Fuller who 2 weeks ago gave a glowing report on the Northern Virginia economy after being paid by the American Electronics Association to do so. He’s just a paid gun, who will say anything. Now the illegal alien lobby is paying him so now he’s saying the opposite of what he just said! He doesn’t have a lot of credibility when his views flip flop every other week. He also said a year ago that the Northern Virginia housing market prices would keep rising and never fall, and by the year 2050 the average home in the DC area would cost more than $14 million. Yes, he sure is very credible!
kgotthardt – wow, this is the same type of rhetoric I was talking about which is being used, directly or indirectly, to instill fear. Also, no offense but just because you have been to the Holocaust Museum doesn’t give you the right to compare the resolution to the Holocaust. Detaining illegal aliens when they come into contact with the police does not compare, I’m sorry but the Nazi reference is over the top and offensive and is just (in my opinion) being used as an attention grabbing scare tactic.
I do agree that the illegal immigration issue needs to be handled carefully because most illegal immigrants are of one race but I don’t agree with calling the resolution racist. It in no way says anything about race. If Joe Smith from Syria is pulled over and is here illegally he will be handled the same as someone from Mexico.
Sorry kgotthardt, I just reread my comment and I take that back, you do have the right to compare the resolution to what ever you want. I just don’t agree with it.
kghotthardt: 6 million Jewish people were KILLED in the holocaust. One guesses you must not have studied the Holocaust museum very carefully to compare the holocaust to what is now going on in PWC. It is just a small example of the misinformation being perpetuated on this website. Are you trying to say the resolution is killing people?
Talk about racism! You are apparently a racist too to make a foolish statement like that! This board just lost the remaining credibility it had comparing what is going on in PWC to the Holocaust!
Eric Byler at 12:23 Diversity has never proven to be related to economic growth in any country I know of, in fact the countries that are most culturally diverse, are usually the ones most likely at war with each other and have cultural hatred shaping their political battles. It is culture that celebrate cultural and national unity and cultural blending that prosper, in almost every case. You econimic concept od “diversity” is good does not hold water, only wishful thinking.
The real problem with “diversity” is it promotes a “one of each mentality” and un-equitably harms and discrimminates majority groups due to illegal racial and ethnic group numerical balancing schemes, any and every “cultural group” who has more members in it than a “minority” set of numbers is unfairly disadvantaged. Each “one of each” minority person is given an unfair advantage over a group of majority members entirely based on race, gender, religion or ethnic group and that is illegal and discriminatory.
Eric,
“PS: RedDawn, that was hilarious linking me to the Jeopardy music! I’m laughing about it, but then again, now I have that darn song stuck in my head”
If you thought that song was bad for being stuck in your head, wait until you get to the thread ” Holy Smoke” HAH HAH
Michael, if you look at the USA, the places with more diversity also have the healthier economies. I’m sorry but I don’t understand the rest of your post.
ReDawn, I am not clicking on unmarked links in your posts ever again. (=
Eric Byler 1:03
I’m sorry but I don’t understand the rest of your post.
Ok I’ll explain again:
The real problem with “diversity” is it promotes a “one of each concept” and disadvantages (harms) and discrimminates against majority groups (while advantaging minority groups) due to illegal racial and ethnic group numerical balancing schemes. Any and every “cultural group” who has more members (say 100) in it than a “minority” set of numbers (say 10 groups of 10 different minorities) is unfairly disadvantaged.
Why? Because one of each group is chosen, 1 from a majority group of 100, 1 from each minority group of 10. 99 people in the majority group are discrimminaqted against so 1/10 of each group, rather than 1/100 of each group can get special treatment and a numerical advantage. This is why numbers balancing is “illegal”. Equal opportunity is not guaranteed and equal outcome are attempted to be manipulated ny minorities promoting “diversity concepts”, which is illegal according to the Supreme Court ruling. Each “one of each” minority person is given an unfair advantage over a group of majority members entirely based on race, gender, religion or ethnic group and that is illegal and discriminatory.
As racist and discriminitory as you can get!
The only legal concept is to treat all 200 people as individuals and choose each based on skill, ability, and performance. This is an “individual rights concept” not a group rights concept. Eric your concept about diverse communities being wealthier is because “illegal” immigrants and “legal” immigrants flock to cities, but they are typically on the lowest end of the pay scale. What makes these communities wealthy is not “diversity:, but the most wealthy people who live there ALSO flock to cities. THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THEIR RACE OR ETHNIC GROUP OR “Diversity” FACTOR. Some people just don’t have solid economic proof for their beliefs.
Your cause and effect is all distorted. There is diversity, and wealth therfore diversity must create wealth (not true).
The real answer is there is wealth, because wealthy people flock to cities. A diverse group of “illegals” and recently legal immigrants also flock to cities but do not contribute “significantly” to the regions wealth. “diversity” is a result of more immigrants and thier hope that a possibility of finding jobs in cities is higher, and of having people of sympathetic and self-identifying groups ask them to join cultural forces their for more political power for each group to influence on others not like themselves. These prior “illegal” or “legal” immigrants are more likely to be in government jobs and in city politics promoting their own cultural group welfare than people living outside of the city regions.