maybe “illegal is illegal” is a good thing?
I have found an interesting thesis that I wanted to share. I do not necessarily subscribe to the theory of keeping illegal immigrants “illegal”, but this theory does pose some food for thought from an economic standpoint. I will post the summary and the link so that everyone has an opportunity to read it in its entirety.
“Immigration reform is one of the most divisive issues confronting U.S. policymakers. The rise in the number of illegal immigrants in the United States over the past ten years—from five to twelve million—has led to concerns about the effects of illegal immigration on wages and public finances, as well as the potential security threats posed by unauthorized entry into the country. In the past year alone, the governors of New Mexico and Arizona have declared a “state of emergency” over illegal immigration, and President Bush signed into law the Secure Fence Act, which authorizes the spending of $1.2 billion for the construction of a seven-hundred-mile fence along the U.S.-Mexico border.
In this Council Special Report, Professor Gordon H. Hanson of the University of California, San Diego approaches immigration through the lens of economics. The results are surprising. By focusing on the economic costs and benefits of legal and illegal immigration, Professor Hanson concludes that stemming illegal immigration would likely lead to a net drain on the U.S. economy—a finding that calls into question many of the proposals to increase funding for border protection. Moreover, Hanson argues that guest worker programs now being considered by Congress fail to account for the economic incentives that drive illegal immigration, which benefits both the undocumented workers who desire to work and live in the United States and employers who want flexible, low-cost labor. Hanson makes the case that unless policymakers design a system of legal immigration that reflects the economic advantages of illegal labor, such programs will not significantly reduce illegal immigration. He concludes with guidelines crucial to any such redesign of U.S. laws and policy. In short, Professor Hanson has written a report that will challenge much of the wisdom (conventional and otherwise) on the economics behind a critical and controversial issue.”
I remember this from last year. I was impressed that it actually considered the effects on the immigrants themselves. Most studies don’t consider that because the immigrants’ interests aren’t important to most people.
“Immigrants are here in large numbers. They swell the cost of
local life - health care, public safety, schools - which has
an impact on local taxes. There are towns and cities that feel,
and are, overwhelmed. And no one will help them … some
feel that if Americans on the ground are enduring difficulties
over this it’s - too bad. This is eroding America’s faith in its
institutions.” Peggy Noonan -WSJ 11-25-2006.
Professor Hanson ignores the impact on local governments
like Manassas, Manassas Park and Prince William County
and the citizens they serve. An inconvenient truth.
Yes, obviously the communities that bear the largest brunt of illegal immigration will be the localities themselves, especially the older more middle to lower income neighborhoods. However, I would say that that is the way it has always been. New immigrants move to the most affordable places to live. Tenemant building in cities were WAY overcrowded when the influx of European immigrants came. Entire enclaves were inundated with varying ethnic groups. Is this migration so different? Is it the place of the federal government to offer assistance to the localities most severely affected? If the reality is that there is more to lose by kicking them all out, how DO we make the burden more equitable?
From what I’ve seen, when economic times are bad, anti-immigrant sentiment increases. It’s a natural scapegoating tendancy. When I read the other blog (perverse fascination) one of the underlying sentiments is that immigration is to blame for most of society’s ills. They say that they’re fine with legal immigration, but if you read the comments, most don’t differentiate on legal or illegal, but on cultural and language differences.
You saw this kind of scapegoating during the depression with Father Coughlin and his type. You saw it in Germany after world war I with the rise of nationalism. You saw it rise in the 80’s recession.
In my view, the reason that Manassas and PWC are seeing a concentration of immigrants is simply that of affordable housing. People have to live somewhere and lower income folk are going to concentrate on areas where they can afford to live. Part of the “afford” calculation is housing density. Already in the Northern Virginia area, if you are of modest means, you have to have roommates. I did it when I lived in Arlington and worked in DC — 3 roommates in a four bedroom house, all of us recently graduated and living on entry-level wages. The lower the wage level, the more people you have to have in a dwelling for the occupants to pay the rent.
I understand the folk in Manassas who feel that their way of life is threatened. Their neighborhoods are in transition not to their liking. The same sentiment arose in Virginia’s cities in the late 60’s and 70’s as black families moved to less dense neighborhoods. The populace responded then with a moratorium on annexation that’s still hamstringing cities today.
Immigration is an economic force. People do what they have to in order to better their condition, and if that means being undocumented, they’ll do it — like water flowing downhill.
PWC is becoming urbanized, the way of life and demographics are simply changing and will now continue to change for years to come. I doubt it can be stopped.
Steven Fuller, an economist at GMU has prepared a future report and in it he indicates that approximately 20% of the infrastructure that will be needed by 2020 is on the ground now in PWC. I will point out that this particular report was prior to the 16% decline in home values and Mr. Fuller was reluctant to agree that a decline would be strong in the DC area or last very long, however, his points regarding the future should be taken seriously.
I have heard that rents are beginning to increase which is an indicator in upward movement of the real estate economy. That is a good sign, however, the ETA of return is far out on the horizon….